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signals in active memory
(21-day rolling window)
(21-day rolling window)
Signals.
The change instrument of the World Model. Signals reads developments across research, policy, markets, technology, projects, publications, cultural production, public language, and documented behavior. New material enters an existing memory: repeated coverage strengthens the provenance of an existing claim, and new evidence updates the object, relationship, measurement, or hypothesis it concerns.
The graphConcepts in active memory · continuous
LIVE
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sources read
every morning
every morning
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fields scanned,
mapped to five strata below
mapped to five strata below
signals collected per day · last 14 days
Connecting to the signal engine…
Evidence classes · where this week's signal is coming from
Different sources reveal different stages of change. Research shows what is being studied. Patents show what is being developed. Capital shows what is being financed. Policy shows what institutions are preparing to permit or restrict. Projects show what is entering physical reality. Public language and cultural production show how ideas are being expressed, adopted, or resisted. Change moves through these systems at different speeds: attention may shift in days, language over months, capital and institutional adoption over years, physical development longer still. Signals tracks these timelines separately and connects them when evidence indicates a shared movement. The bars show which layers this week's signal is coming from.
What is moving · one board, every stream
Everything surging, in one place, whatever the stream. Conversation counts the names rising in the articles the scan reads, this week against the previous weeks. Research and patents measure what is being worked on. Markets show where crowd money is moving. Each tile says which stream its movement was seen in. Sourced, not modeled.
The standing panel · the watchlist in detail
Directional claims remain inspectable. Each object is measured through scholarly output (OpenAlex) and US patent filings (USPTO, visible at the statutory 18-month lag), with the current value, previous value, comparison period, and source stated. The state word is explicit criteria, not a model score: SURGING means research grew over 40% year on year and is still accelerating quarter on quarter. HEATING means clear growth. STEADY means within ±15%. COOLING means contraction. THIN means under 10 works in 12 months, too little to read. Where precision is not possible, the uncertainty remains visible. Each tile states its evidence composition: how many independent streams support the reading.
Crowd probabilities · what money currently believes
Live prices from open prediction markets, read daily. A price is a crowd probability, not a model output: 68% means the crowd, with money at stake, gives the outcome a 68% chance. Drift shows the move since the previous daily read. Polymarket reads speculative global conviction; Kalshi, where present, reads a regulated US exchange. Sourced, not modeled.
Convergences · patterns that passed review
A convergence connects independent evidence through a shared mechanism. Research may precede investment. Investment may precede regulation. Cultural language may precede commercial formats. Behavioral change may create new spatial demand. A convergence is published when several forms of evidence point toward the same underlying change, and only after its evidence has been reviewed and stood behind.
Field notes · human-written
The aperture · signals by field
Deliberately wide. Convergence only shows where unrelated fields move together, so the scan reads fields that do not read each other.
Latest signals · the raw feed
The newest items exactly as collected, before any judgment. Titles link to the original sources.
The signal engine isn't reachable right now. The scan continues in the background; check back shortly.
Public record. Selected signals are published; the complete model remains private. This surface shows reviewed evidence, measurements, and convergences. The active questions, full evidence record, contradictions, hypotheses, and reading packets remain within the World Model. Everything numeric on this page is sourced: research counts from OpenAlex, patent filings from USPTO, crowd probabilities from open markets, signal counts from the scan itself. Sourced means the number exists in the world and can be checked; nothing here is modeled.